Namely, tkl_constant = 0 if the year is before 1994, and otherwise, tkl_constant = .6 if the player is a defensive lineman, .3 if the player is a linebacker, and 0 of the player is a defensive back.all_pro_level = 1.5 for first-team all-pro, 1.0 for second-team all-pro, and 0.5 for pro bowleryear_multiplier = (year_constant) * (number_of_games_multiplier),where year_constant = 40 for the pre-sack years (1970--1981) and 80 for the post-sack years (1982--present), andThe point of all these fudge factors is to try to maintain a somewhat equal weight on making the pro bowl across seasons where the stat part of the equation is larger or smaller leaguewide. And non-starters aren't worthless, so they get some points too. We present them here for purely educational purposes. Starters on good teams are, as a group, better than starters on bad teams. The purpose of this page is to post the full details of the Doug sketched out a rough outline of what the AV system is in these After making a few small tweaks to the formula, Doug What follows are Doug's words (and mine re: kickers and punters), describing how the system works and the thought process that went into its creation...You should consider this an evolving document, as I will probably be forever tweaking some of the constants described below. Current ValueValue of team based on current stadium deal (unless new stadium is pending), without deduction for debt (other than stadium debt). In the … You should think of it as being essentially like those two metrics, but with interpolation in between. The approximate value is not an end-all-be-all score for the best players in history, as many accomplishments and efforts never made it to the stat sheet. Full Site Menu. For the uninitiated, you can review how AV is calculated That is, 'number of seasons as a starter' is a reasonable starting point if you're trying to measure, say, how good a particular draft class is, or what kind of player you can expect to get with the #13 pick in the draft. Like with kickers, we determine what share of the team's "punting playing time" the player has received:Then calculate the amount of AV the punter would get in his playing time if he had an average adj_punt_yds_above_avg (again prorating the league-average 2.1875 figure from above downwards for seasons of fewer than 16 games):Then adjust this up or down based on his adj_punt_yds_above_avg (dividing by 200 arbitrarily calibrates the results to match the AV scale we described above):The final step is to prorate this back up to 16 team games for seasons with unusual schedules:All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. The True Value of the NFL Draft. The point is: while I do think we need some sort of theory to get us started in certain areas, I won’t be too apologetic about making some arbitrary changes if a strict application of the theory leads us to “wrong” answers.On the offensive side, I let the theory drive the method for the most part, only tweaking the constants a little bit.On the defensive side of the ball, things just aren't so clear. Approximate Value is Doug Drinen's method of putting a single numerical value on any player's season, at any position, from any year (for now, it's just any year since 1950). How much credit do linebackers get for pass defense versus run defense? Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. As I quoted Bill James in the last post: “These approximations are not intended to tell you anything at all about the player that you do not already know.” They’re not supposed to teach us new things; they’re merely supposed to codify the things we already know, so it’s OK to cook the books a little bit until they do tell us what we already know.

If we split a defense's production into rushing defense and passing defense, to what extent do then divvy up the passing defense points between pass rushers and pass defenders?

You can read a more detailed explanation of this metric All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. We present them here for purely educational purposes. Return to Top; Players.

That is, while stats will figure into it to some extent, a defensive player's rating will be largely based on how many games he played, how many games he started, how good his team was defensively, and whether he garnered any all-pro or pro bowl honors.where M = (team defensive points allowed per drive) / (league average defensive points allowed per drive)These two calculations come from the same theory that was used to determine some of the constants on the offensive side. We have complete distance data going back to 1969; from 1960-1968 we have partial distances for some players; before 1959, no distances are known. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. With the All-Pro votes now in, the initial 2017 Approximate Value numbers have … I don't know. Full Site Menu. The problem here is that none of us really knows how to compare Tarik Glenn’s 2006 to Gary Clark’s 1991. And to the extent that we do “know,” we all “know” different things. The core stat that determines a kicker's performance is Kicking Points Above Average (PAA), which is derived by comparing a player's XP% and his FG% at various distances (0-19 yds, 20-29 yds, 30-39 yds, 40-49 yds, 50+ yds) to the league average in the same category, to determine the number of points he added above what a league-average kicker would produce in the same number of chances.where fgm_u and fga_u are field goals made and attempted that are unaccounted for by the distance categories.

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